Ashvances in Tephra Hazard Modelling: Valerie Olfindo and Heather Craig (01:00 UTC, 16 September 2025)

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From: Paul Jarvis <p.jarvis@xxxxxxxxxx>


Dear colleagues,

We are delighted to invite you to join us for the next instalment of
the *Ashvances
in Tephra Hazard Modelling* seminar series, organised by the IAVCEI
Commission for Tephra Hazard Modelling. The time for this seminar will
be *01:00
UTC *on* 16 September 2025*. Please use this time zone converter
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html?iso=20250916T010000&p1=103&p2=18&p3=224&p4=1440&p5=108&p6=236&p7=122&p8=248&p9=240&p10=264__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!eCqhMDlL4JhE7EGPRu47f8nvt4tFEeaYsrYuNcBbX45mlpEsqAebw1gCeNcul2vcBsRXPjEHbpNbVIEGCk_ZvZ9efA$>
to
check the time of the event in your time zone.

It is our pleasure to welcome, Valerie Olfindo (University of Queensland)
and *Heather Craig *(University of Canterbury) as our speakers. They will
be presenting:

   - Valerie Olfindo: *Unveiling the drivers of the Taal 2020 explosive
   eruption via tephra microchemistry*
   - Heather Craig: *Understanding ashfall impacts and long-term recovery
   from the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâ??apai volcano,
   Kingdom of Tonga*

Abstracts for the two talks can be found below.

If you would like to attend the seminar, *please register here
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://events.teams.microsoft.com/event/7078f16c-50d9-4c59-9935-f0c7e5ba3d72@f607a494-56fb-4073-8fc5-6daa9c5d38d7__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!eCqhMDlL4JhE7EGPRu47f8nvt4tFEeaYsrYuNcBbX45mlpEsqAebw1gCeNcul2vcBsRXPjEHbpNbVIEGCk_aZVBLKw$>*
.

We recognise that the time of this event will not be amenable to everyone.
We aim to rotate our seminars around different time zones as much as
possible to reach audience members from across the globe and give everyone
an equal and fair chance to participate in the seminars.

We are always looking out for new speakers in future seminars. We aim to
hold a seminar every quarter (c. 3 months), with each seminar lasting for
about an hour. Two speakers will be allocated 15-20-minute talks with 5-10
minutes for questions. The last 10 minutes will be kept for general
discussions, e.g., how the Tephra Hazard Modelling Commission can serve you
better, and socializing/networking. At least one of the talks will be by an
early-career researcher, and we will use this seminar series to showcase
the work of researchers with backgrounds underrepresented in volcanology.
Time zones will be selected based on the location(s) of speakers and we
will aim to rotate these as much as possible to reach audience members from
across the globe and give everyone an equal and fair chance to participate
in the seminars. We aim that by having two talks per seminar, each session
will cover multiple topics, including but not limited to numerical
modelling, field studies, laboratory experiments and risk
communication/management. *Please use this form
**https://forms.gle/z7LB3TJDWauD3qCs6
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://forms.gle/z7LB3TJDWauD3qCs6__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!ZYbhk9h-Mu55gmuoIMwvyIC8M7kzQzsnRi4gp6yn6R6g390Oz7FTA4cXbI5RMdelaV_WHtdXISDx-y_Zhg$>**
to
register your interest in being a speaker or suggest a student/colleague*.
We particularly encourage (self-) nomination of diverse and early career
scientists.

We look forward to welcoming you to what promises to be a fantastic
seminar. *Please don't forget that you can sign up to our commission and
mailing list anytime at this link
<https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/webadmin?SUBED1=IAVCEITHM&A=1__;!!IKRxdwAv5BmarQ!eCqhMDlL4JhE7EGPRu47f8nvt4tFEeaYsrYuNcBbX45mlpEsqAebw1gCeNcul2vcBsRXPjEHbpNbVIEGCk-tpW9w4g$>.*

All the best,

Paul (on behalf of the co-chairs of IAVCEIâ??s Tephra Hazard Modelling
Commission)

*Abstracts*

*Valerie Olfindo*: *Unveiling the drivers of the Taal 2020 explosive
eruption via tephra microchemistry*

The explosive eruption of Taal Volcano on 12-13 January 2020 generated
extensive tephra deposits (mainly volcanic ash) mantling nearby
municipalities, and reaching Metro Manila around 100 km away. Analysis of
these erupted magma fragments will aid in understanding eruption triggers
and improving volcano monitoring forecasts. In this study, we present
petrographic and geochemical data of the Taal Volcano 2020 tephra deposit
to unveil the drivers of the eruption and identify eruptive phases based on
stratigraphy and geochemistry. Our initial data indicate the rapid ascent
of intermediate magma, which might have triggered the explosive eruption.
The minor occurrence of less differentiated magma, suggesting mafic magma
recharge may also have contributed to the eruption.

*Heather Craig*: *Understanding ashfall impacts and long-term recovery from
the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâ??apai volcano, Kingdom
of Tonga*

The 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâ??apai eruption generated a tsunami
and ashfall that had widespread impacts to human health, buildings,
agriculture, and infrastructure across the Kingdom of Tonga (population
~108,000). Currently, there is limited data on impacts and recovery from
ashfall in the South Pacific. To address this gap, fieldwork was conducted
on the islands of Tongatapu and Haâ??apai in June 2023, August 2023, and
August 2025, focussing on four main areas: 1) the collection of primary
ashfall impact data; 2) understanding Tongan partner agenciesâ?? interests;
3) engaging with local existing projects and research directions; and 4)
understanding recovery pathways and approaches. Interviews and stakeholder
workshops were conducted focussing on knowledge transfer and planning
preparedness resources. The main lessons identified related to:
arrangements for rapid ash hazard characterisation to inform the emergency
management response; the requirements for ongoing cleaning of remobilised
ash, particularly from electrical transformers and stormwater systems;
improving awareness of cascading impacts from areas affected by both
ashfall and tsunami; and the need for Tonga-specific ashfall preparedness
and response resources.



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